Category Archives: 财务+投资

U really believe recession is a big issue according to media? They are all ass-kisser. Opportunity is every where. Dollar oversold (logn run weaken of coz), yen carrytrade, frontier mkt boom, decoupling of China and India, appealing PEG in Chinese and HK … Continue reading →

The global economy now faces the potential for a late-20th-century-style spike in oil prices, a 21st-century global financial shock — and an old-fashioned 19th-century-style slowdown in global trade.

Was in a conference call with a 25-year HF veteran. The current mkt situation is weird and exotic to him. And once mentioning about the near future, he expressed himself in some skeptical attitude, if not everyone has the same … Continue reading →

OK, OK they are talking about indexation…Rob Arnott is the man.

Were we in the thrid inning of the credit crunch??? Nope, we’re still in the middle of the national anthem… – S.D

基于简单判断，在我blog踩脚的朋友基本修过经济学101，所以本文仅对一些必要概念做简单解释， 如下：   汇率体制：美国 － 浮动，中国 － 管理浮动。   经常性帐户盈余对购买力影响：中国外汇政策造成市场对人民币需求过盛，从而造成经常性帐户的巨大盈余，继而为人民币造成持续升值压力。政府大量发行新人民币买入美元及其美国国债，保持汇率稳定。结果：1. 造成外汇储备帐户不断膨胀. 2. 市场上人民币流通数量剧增，造成实际购买力下降，通货膨胀压力持续。   汇率和利率关系：实际利率降低，本国货币贬值。   购买力平价：长期汇率机制受实际购买力影响（一价定律）。   固定收益证券定价101：其价格和利率（收益率）成反比。   基准利率：市场无风险收益率，一般用短期国债收益率代表。   本文全部内容来自作者臆想，仅代表个人观点。如有雷同，纯属巧合。本文关于军事，政治的论述纯属胡扯，不参与讨论；本文对经济学方向的论述尚属肤浅，欢迎指正。   本文将从美国经济状况的两极：衰退和保持稳定展开讨论。主要目的是论述作者关于无论那种情况下，在半年至一年内对台作战都是适合时宜的最佳选择的观点，同时本文将夹杂对战争情况下中国股市，汇率政策及物价水平的讨论。   以下正文：   如果美国进入经济衰退， 联储通过连续降息来刺激经济，直接影响之一则是美元的持续贬值。此时中国如果坐以待毙，无疑于等死。为保持汇率稳定而牺牲的货币政策将为国内通货膨胀雪上加霜。基于此点的基本判断将是中国股市持续走高以抵制通货膨胀造成的影响。但是此种增长无疑是百分百的泡沫增长。从长远考虑极为不可取。通过对台作战，我们可以轻松化解此种不利境界。同时我们可以充分利用外汇储备中美国国债来抵制美元持续贬值。外汇储备可以说是目前中国最有力武器之一。如果中国在市场上倾销美国国债，造成供给面的震荡，美国国债价格会大幅下跌，从而致使美国国债收益率的直线上涨直接影响美国国内利率水平。基于此种情况的结果之一则将是美元升值以及股市的崩溃（债市有利可图）。借此机会，中国则可以通过发行战争债券机会伺机回购人民币，控制国内通货膨胀压力。   第一稿，待续。。。

 Bernanke…are you not with me anymore! You are losing ur ground. What shall we call you? Too conservative or too aggressive? Are you bailing out ??? Darn Shit.

The secular bears are still slumbering in their caves? - I think so…   Who is the next giant to be hammered by bad exposure news? Blackrock? Fid? – Let’s make a guess   Will emerging mkt be the safety harbour or … Continue reading →

Write Call, Write put… Total naked position… But the premium will be quasi risk-free. As long as you can convince ur brokers.

The question of who the survivors will be at the end of the credit bubble can be easily gleaned from lesson of the tech bubble. How many great tech companies were wiped out along with the bad, for lack of … Continue reading →